Invest SADC | STRATUM BRIDGE

COMESA
REPORT

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) offers a vibrant and dynamic market for potential investors looking to expand their reach in Africa. With a diverse population and a combined GDP that presents substantial opportunities, COMESA is focused on enhancing regional integration and economic cooperation.

EXPLORE

OVERVIEW

Executive Summary

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) represents one of Africa's largest regional economic communities, comprising 21 member states with varying economic profiles, investment climates, and development trajectories. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of investment opportunities across the COMESA region, with detailed country-by-country assessments of key sectors, opportunities, and risks.

Our analysis reveals that while the region offers abundant natural resources and growing markets, investment environments vary significantly between countries. Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, and Rwanda present the most favorable overall investment climates, with strong institutional frameworks and relatively diversified economies. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, and Sudan offer substantial resource endowments but face higher investment risks related to political instability, regulatory challenges, and infrastructure deficits.

Key regional investment trends include:

Growing emphasis on renewable energy development across the region
Expanding agricultural processing and value addition opportunities
Increasing investments in digital infrastructure and technology services
Rising importance of critical minerals for global energy transition
Emerging logistics and infrastructure development potential

This report provides investors with a systematic framework for evaluating opportunities across COMESA, highlighting both sector-specific prospects and country-level risk factors to consider when developing investment strategies for the region.

Methodology

This report employs a structured rating system to evaluate investment opportunities across COMESA countries, balancing sector-specific opportunities against country-level risks.

Rating System

Our assessment methodology comprises two primary components:

Opportunity Score (1-10)

Market size and growth potential (0-2)
Resource endowment (0-2)
Sector diversification (0-2)
Regional/global market access (0-2)
Government incentives for investment (0-2)

Risk Score (1-10)

Political stability (0-2)
Regulatory environment (0-2)
Infrastructure quality (0-2)
Economic stability (0-2)
Legal/judicial protections (0-2)

Overall Investment Rating

The overall investment rating is calculated as:

(Opportunity Score × 0.6) + (10 - Risk Score) × 0.4)

This formula weights opportunities slightly higher than risks and converts the Risk Score to a positive factor by subtracting it from 10.

The final score ranges from 1 to 10, with higher scores indicating more favorable investment environments.

Rating Scale Interpretation:

8.5-10: Excellent - Highly recommended for investment

7.0-8.4: Very Good - Recommended for investment

5.5-6.9: Good - Investment with caution

4.0-5.4: Fair - Selective investment opportunities

Below 4.0: Challenging - Significant due diligence required

Regional Overview

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) encompasses 21 member states with a combined population of approximately 583 million people and a collective GDP of over $805 billion. Established in 1994 as a successor to the Preferential Trade Area (PTA), COMESA's primary objective is to promote regional economic integration through trade and the development of natural and human resources for the mutual benefit of all member states.

The region possesses abundant natural resources, including minerals, agricultural land, water resources, and wildlife, creating diverse investment opportunities across sectors. COMESA's strategic location, bridging East and Southern Africa with connections to the Middle East and Asia, provides significant potential for trade and investment.

Key achievements of COMESA include the establishment of a Free Trade Area in 2000, which has facilitated increased intra-regional trade. Several COMESA institutions support regional integration and investment facilitation, including the COMESA Regional Investment Agency (RIA), the COMESA Clearing House, and the Trade and Development Bank (formerly PTA Bank).

Despite these achievements, the region faces challenges including infrastructure deficits, varying regulatory environments, political instability in some member states, and external economic shocks. These factors create a diverse investment landscape with opportunities and risks that vary significantly between countries.

Comparative Analysis

Opportunity vs. Risk Analysis:

Top Investment Sectors Across SADC:

Investment Climate Comparison by Category:

The comparative analysis of COMESA member states reveals several key insights for investors considering the region:

Three-Tier Investment Landscape

The region presents a clear segmentation with Egypt, Kenya, and Mauritius offering the most stable investment environments; mid-tier countries like Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Tunisia balancing opportunities with manageable risks; and higher-risk, higher-potential markets like DRC, Somalia, and Sudan requiring specialized strategies.

Sectoral Concentration

Across the region, the most prevalent investment opportunities are in renewable energy, agriculture/agro-processing, and information technology, reflecting both natural advantages and policy priorities in many member states.

Infrastructure as both Opportunity and Risk

Infrastructure deficits feature prominently as risks throughout most COMESA countries, yet simultaneously represent significant investment opportunities, particularly in energy, transportation, and telecommunications.

Governance Variations

The quality of governance and regulatory environments varies significantly across COMESA, creating stark differences in risk profiles despite geographical proximity. Countries with more predictable regulatory environments like Mauritius and Rwanda consistently rank higher in overall investment attractiveness.

Complementary Economies

The diverse economic profiles of COMESA countries create opportunities for investors to develop regional strategies leveraging the comparative advantages of each country within integrated value chains.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa presents a diverse investment landscape with significant opportunities across a range of sectors and markets. While investment environments vary considerably between member states, strategic approaches tailored to specific country contexts can yield substantial returns.

Key Recommendations for Investors:

Strategic Approach

Develop country-specific strategies recognizing the substantial differences in business environments across COMESA
Consider regional value chain opportunities leveraging the comparative advantages of different member states
Prioritize sectors aligned with regional development priorities for access to supportive policies and incentives
Engage with investment promotion agencies and COMESA structures during project development phases

Risk Mitigation

Utilize political risk insurance and guarantee mechanisms through multilateral institutions
Develop strong local partnerships to navigate complex operating environments
Consider phased investment approaches to test markets and build understanding before significant capital deployment
Implement robust compliance programs addressing governance and transparency challenges

While challenges exist, the COMESA region's combination of natural resource endowments, improving governance in many member states, growing consumer markets, and strategic position in global supply chains for critical minerals makes it an increasingly important investment destination. Investors with appropriate risk mitigation strategies and long-term perspectives continue to find significant opportunities throughout the region.

As regional integration advances through initiatives like the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the potential for expanded market access and streamlined trade further enhances the region's investment proposition. Early movers in key sectors stand to benefit from first-mover advantages in what remains one of the world's most resource-rich and highest-growth potential regions.

COMESA COUNTRY RISK PROFILES

Crime, Corruption & Political Stability Analysis

Executive Summary

This comprehensive report provides an in-depth analysis of crime rates, corruption levels, and political stability across all 21 member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). Drawing from multiple authoritative sources including Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Global Peace Index, World Bank Governance Indicators, and regional crime statistics, we have formulated standardized rating systems to facilitate clear comparison between member states.

Our findings indicate significant variation in risk profiles across the region, with countries like Mauritius, Rwanda, and Tunisia consistently outperforming regional averages across all three risk categories. Conversely, countries experiencing active conflicts or governance challenges such as Libya, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo present elevated risk profiles. Most COMESA nations occupy a middle ground, with specific strengths and vulnerabilities that vary by country.

This analysis is intended to provide investors, policymakers, and regional stakeholders with actionable intelligence to inform decision-making processes. Each country profile includes current risk ratings, key trends, and notable developments that may impact future risk trajectories.

Methodology

Our assessment employs a five-tier rating system across three critical dimensions:

Crime Index Rating

Based on reported crime statistics, homicide rates, organized crime prevalence, and public perception surveys. Data sources include national police statistics, UNODC reports, and the ENACT Organized Crime Index.

Corruption Rating

Primarily derived from Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), supplemented by World Bank Control of Corruption indicators and regional governance assessments.

Political Stability Rating

Incorporates the World Bank Political Stability and Absence of Violence Index, recent electoral processes, civil liberty indicators, and freedom of press measurements.

Rating Scale

Very low risk level

Low risk level

Moderate risk level

High risk level

Very high risk level

All ratings are normalized to enable cross-country comparison and are reviewed quarterly to reflect changing conditions. Detailed methodology notes are available upon request.

Regional Overview

The COMESA region demonstrates considerable diversity in governance, security, and economic development. The regional average for the Corruption Perceptions Index stands at 32/100, significantly below the global average. The Political Stability Index averages -0.60 for the region, with substantial variation between the most stable member (Mauritius at +0.78) and the least stable (Libya at -2.17).

Corruption Perception Index (2024):

Political Stability Index (2023-2024):

Crime Index by Country (2023-2024):

32/100 Average Corruption Score for COMESA Region (Transparency International)
-0.60 Average Political Stability Index for COMESA Region (World Bank)
5.60 Average Organized Crime Index Score for COMESA Region (ENACT)

Conclusion and Recommendations

The COMESA region presents a diverse risk landscape, with significant variations in crime rates, corruption levels, and political stability among member states. Countries like Mauritius, Rwanda, and Seychelles demonstrate that good governance practices can effectively mitigate these risks, while countries facing multiple challenges such as Libya, Sudan, Somalia, and the DRC highlight the complex interplay between security, governance, and economic factors.

Key Regional Trends

Organized crime is increasingly transnational in nature, with criminal networks operating across borders
Political stability varies widely, with several member states experiencing severe conflict or governance challenges
Corruption remains endemic in many COMESA countries, hampering economic development and service delivery
Financial crimes have emerged as the most prevalent form of criminal activity in the region
Climate change is creating new security vulnerabilities that may exacerbate existing risk factors

Recommendations for Stakeholders

For Investors:

Conduct thorough due diligence tailored to specific country contexts; leverage local partnerships to navigate complex risk environments; develop robust security and anti-corruption protocols

For Policy Makers:

Strengthen regional cooperation on transnational organized crime; enhance anti-corruption frameworks and implementation mechanisms; address socioeconomic drivers of instability

For Civil Society:

Advocate for transparency and accountability in governance; monitor implementation of anti-corruption initiatives; build public awareness about security challenges

COUNTRY PROFILES

MAURTITIUS

7.38

IN PROGRESS...

EGYPT

7.14

DISCOVER

RWANDA

6.84

IN PROGRESS...

KENYA

6.60

IN PROGRESS...

ETHIOPIA

6.40

IN PROGRESS...

SEYCHELLES

6.38

IN PROGRESS...

TUNISIA

6.28

IN PROGRESS...

ZAMBIA

6.00

IN PROGRESS...

UGANDA

5.90

IN PROGRESS...

DJIBOUTI

5.84

IN PROGRESS...

ESWATINI

5.40

IN PROGRESS...

Flag_of_the_Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo.svg.png

DRC

5.20

IN PROGRESS...

LIBYA

5.12

IN PROGRESS...

MALAWI

5.00

IN PROGRESS...

MADAGASCAR

4.92

IN PROGRESS...

ZIMBABWE

4.62

IN PROGRESS...

SUDAN

4.40

IN PROGRESS...

COMOROS

4.28

IN PROGRESS...

BURUNDI

4.18

IN PROGRESS...

ERITREA

3.90

IN PROGRESS...

SOMALIA

3.60

IN PROGRESS...

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REPORT

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The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) offers a vibrant and dynamic market for potential investors looking to expand their reach in Africa. With a diverse population and a combined GDP that presents substantial opportunities, COMESA is focused on enhancing regional integration and economic cooperation.

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